The American Solar Market Boosted

Ean GoodguyAugust 13, 2018168

The American Solar Market Boosted

Investigators expect solar panel prices to drop by a third. That could be a lifeline for U.S. developers, who sidelined billions of dollars in schemes over the tariffs. China declared it was scaling back some of its solar subsidies. Investigators anticipate the policies to reduce the amount of solar installed in China, but expand its solar panel sales globally, dropping prices. The Chinese government has proclaimed it will stop or contract many of its solar subsidies. Investigators anticipate that to reduce solar capacity growth in China this year while significantly rising Chinese solar panel sales to the global solar panel system market. 

Energy investigators say the Chinese government's determination to dramatically cut its solar power subsidies will produce an oversupply of solar panels and send their costs tumbling worldwide. It comes at a crucial time for American solar installers. Lowering prices could take the bite out of President Trump's solar panel tariffs, which have increased prices in the United States and led to billions of dollars in canceled and frozen U.S. investments.

"It's changing the tone from negative to positive for the U.S.," said Xiaoting Wang, an analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

Recently, the Chinese government declared it would stop approvals of new subsidized utility-scale solar plants, narrow the amount of smaller-scale distributed generation installed and shrink the subsidies it provides to solar generators. All told, these methods are expected to lower the amount of solar capacity installed this year in China by 30 to 40 percent, according to Wood Mackenzie and BNEF.

Because China heads the world in new solar installations, the sheer drop in demand will ripple over the global market.

BNEF anticipates prices of some solar panels to fall 34 percent as result. That will take down installation prices for new solar projects, particularly large, utility-scale systems, and spur new finance in other countries, though BNEF said that new investment is unlikely to earn up for the drop in China.


Lower Prices Could Overcome Tariffs

Morgan Lyons, a spokesman for the Solar Energy Industries Association, said it's too early to know what the impacts on the U.S. market will be, but that it will likely lead to lower prices.

The decline could also counteract the impact of new tariffs the Trump administration forced on imported solar panels. The tariffs, which started this year at 30 percent and will decrease over the next three years, gave a boost to domestic manufacturers of solar panels, who faced competition from low-cost imports from China and other countries. One of those manufacturers, First Solar Inc., saw its stock value fall sharply after China's decision because it's now expected to face lower-cost competition once again. But the tariffs have the adverse effect on the solar installation sector, which employs far more people than production.


U.S. Solar Developers

U.S. solar developers have cut or suspended more than $2.5 billion in investments, Reuters reported Thursday. A report by GTM Research announced the tariffs would cut solar installations by 11 percent over five years, or about 7.6 gigawatts fewer new capacity than beforehand forecast.

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