China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) released official statistics concerning 1H/2017 solar PV deployment and confirmed formerly disclosed information, that during the 1H/2017 in total 24.4 GW were added, representing an increase of 9 percent year-over-year. Out of 24.4 GW, approximately 17.29 GW are made up by ground-mounted utility-scale and the remaining 7.11 GW are distributed solar, says the consultancy Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. Ltd. (AECEA). These official statistics are in line with figures announced by the China PV Industry Association in mid of July (as reported).

According to AECEA, provinces like Anhui (1.38 GW), Zhejiang (1.25 GW) and Shandong (1.23 GW) have taken the lead in adding distributed solar PV power generation capacities during 1H/2017. These three provinces combined are responsible for approximately 54.2 percent of total DG installations in 1H. Shandong just added 310 MW of utility-scale during the same period. In AECEA’s view, 2017 full year PV installations are on track to match or possibly to exceed last year’s 34.54 GW.

Few days before, NEA has released a guidance regarding the implementation of the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016 to 2020) for Renewable Energy with an emphasis on the 2017 to 2020 period. Accordingly, the annual installation targets for PV between 2017 and 2020 are about 22.4 GW and 21.1 GW and includes an annual 8 GW top-runner target as well. Installation targets have been set for each province for every year till 2020.

According to AECEA, these targets exclude distributed solar PV and poverty alleviation projects and is therefore considered to encompass utility-scale ground mounted and Agro-PV projects only. Additional, »various municipalities and locations within specific provinces or autonomous regions are not subject to any limitation,« says AECEA. However, provinces already facing significant grid curtailment have not received any guiding target yet. Findings of an on the ground investigation shall determine their targets at a later stage. »In total, during the period 2017 to 2020 approximately 86.5 GW shall be installed. By the end of 2020 China could be home to approximately 190 to 200 GW.« The target of 60 GW of distributed generated solar PV stipulated in the 13th Five-Year Plan for the power sector will in AECEA’s opinion not be realized. The consultancy estimates 40 to 45 GW by the end of 2020. By the end of 2020 China’s total installed solar PV power generation capacity may reach approx. up to 230 GW.

The official notification does not stipulate a new overall target to be realized by 2020, i.e. officially speaking the 105 GW still stands.