Fossil fuels have provided the world with lots of energy and lots of problems too. Isn't there an energy source that's affordable and doesn't kill people and other forms of life? In the near future, we will have to make the switch to renewable energy – if not out of concern about climate change then simply because fossil fuels will soon run out. But even sustainable energy technologies may have an effect on global climate, according to a new study. Researchers used computerized climate models to discover what would happen if the world’s entire energy supply were converted to solar. They assumed that solar panels would be installed in the major desert regions of the world, where the supply of sunlight is greatest, and in urban areas, where the demand for power is greatest.
In locations covered by solar panels, less solar radiation gets absorbed by the Earth, because it gets assimilated by the solar panels (and converted to electricity) instead. Widespread installation of solar panels would decrease absorption of solar radiation by up to 19% in desert areas, the researchers discovered. Consequently, this has varying effects on the climate. On a global scale, the changes from solar panel installation are small compared to those predicted to occur due to the emission of greenhouse gases. But at a regional level, some of these climatic shifts could be dramatic, the researchers say. The average temperature in desert regions would decrease by about two degrees Celsius. Desert precipitation could also decrease by over 20%, largely because the presence of solar panels also lessens cloud cover.
According to the researchers’ model, this desert cooling would lead to fluctuations in wind patterns, a shift in the location of the jet stream, and altered rain levels for many regions. Much of Asia, parts of the Middle East, Australia, and the tropical Pacific would lose up to 25 centimeters of average annual rain. Instead, that precipitation would shift to Europe, the North Pacific, western North America, tropical Africa, and the southeast Indian Ocean.
Areas to the East, or downwind, of desert areas covered by solar panels would also drop in temperature by about one degree Celsius. The study presents an extreme scenario: the researchers assumed that 100 percent of the land area in cities and deserts would be covered with solar panels, which isn’t likely to happen. Those solar panels would generate almost 800 terawatts of power, much more than the world is likely to require. But the researchers say this sort of study can reveal mechanisms underlying the climate system and help understand the results of more realistic modeling exercises. So they also created a version of their model that more accurately reflects plausible future demands for power. In this situation, solar panels would be installed across urban areas worldwide and in a portion of the Egyptian desert, covering about 10% of the total land area devoted to solar installations in the first version of the model.
Here the patterns of surface temperature change are comparable in broad strokes to those seen in the extreme version of the model, but much more restrained. For example, global temperature would decline by about 0.04 degrees Celsius, the researchers found. This smaller global solar grid would generate about 59 terawatts of power per year. That’s still plenty sufficient to cover global demand for electricity, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated to be, at most, 45 terawatts per year by 2100.
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